Editors Note: Thanks for making this the most-viewed Miami Dolphins content here on Dolphins Digest to date! I greatly appreciate it and hope you continue to enjoy this expansive series.

Table of Contents:

• Introduction
• Part 1: Draft Pick Broad Overview
• Part 2: Miami Dolphins, Chris Grier, and First Round Draft Trends

Welcome to Day Two

So far, we’ve laid out a plan for this draft deep-dive, took a broad look at all of the draft picks made by Chris Grier and most recently deep-dove into the first round specifically. Now, it’s time to take a look at Day 2 picks (2nd and 3rd round) made by Chris Grier since he took over as General Manager of the Miami Dolphins in 2016.

Here are all the day two picks since the 2016 NFL draft:

Year	Round (Pick)	Player (Pos.)
2022	3 (102)	Channing Tindall (LB)
2021	2 (36)	Jevon Holland (DB)
	2 (42)	Liam Eichenberg (OL)
	3 (81)	Hunter Long (TE)
2020	2 (39)	Robert Hunt (G)
	2 (56)	Raekwon Davis (DT)
	3 (70)	Brandon Jones (DB)
2019	3 (78)	Michael Deiter (G)
2018	2 (42)	Mike Gesicki (TE)
	3 (73)	Jerome Baker (LB)
2017	2 (54)	Raekwon McMillan (LB)
	3 (97)	Cordrea Tankersley (DB)
2016	2 (38)	Xavien Howard (DB)
	3 (73)	Kenyan Drake (RB)
	3 (86)	Leontee Carroo (WR)

Alright, let’s dig into what the data tells us.

First and foremost, assuming every team would have a baseline of (1) second-round pick per season and (1) third-round pick per season, that would mean each team would have a total of 14 selections across these two rounds from 2016-2022.

From 2016-2022, the Miami Dolphins had (7) second-round selections and (8) third-round selections for a grand total of 15 day two draft picks in seven seasons. The only season without both a second-round and third-round selection was 2019 in which they traded a 2nd for Josh Rosen, thus only picking in the third.

Without further adieu, let’s dive in:

Second-Round Insights and Tendencies for the Miami Dolphins

• Four draft selections on the defensive side of the ball.
  • Of those, two were defensive backs and both are stars for their position (Holland and Howard).
  • Raekwon McMillan (LB) went on to be traded before his third season to the Raiders. Since then, he has gone on to receive new contracts from the New England Patriots and remains a borderline starter for the team.
• Three draft selections on the offensive side of the ball.
  • Only one skill position player has been drafted in round 2 by Chris and that is none other than Mike Gesicki, now a member of the New England Patriots.
  • Two were offensive linemen (Hunt and Eichenberg), with only one finding success through their first two+ seasons in Robert Hunt.
• Since drafting starting QB Tua Tagovailoa 5th overall in 2020: one offensive player (Hunt) and two defensive players (Holland/Davos) have been drafted in the second round.
  • Editors Note: I use this piece of insight to better understand whether a teams draft habbits change after they draft a franchise quarterback.
• Average position of first selection in 2nd-round: 41.8 (this can be due to trades)

Third-Round Insights and Tendencies for the Miami Dolphins

• Four draft selections on the defensive side of the ball.
  • Of those, two were defensive backs (Jones and Tankersley). Tankersley was out of the league after his third season. Jones tore his ACL but is expected to make a full recovery and rejoin his teammates on the field this season.
  • The other two picks on the defensive side of the ball were linebackers (Baker and Tindall). Baker earned a second, big-money, contract. Tindall, however, was largely a non-factor in his first season with the team, tallying just three total tackles in limited action.
  • So a 50-50 split here between LB and DB.
• Four draft selections on the offensive side of the ball.
  • Wide receiver, running back, guard, and tight end. Chris Grier has certainly been diverse with this third-round offensive draft picks.
  • Tight end (Long) was just traded to the LA Rams after his second season, the data around him is too limited to truly evaluate the selection – not uncommon for tight ends who typically take a little longer to develop.
  • The rest of these positions have had time. Of the three remaining selections, two received a second contract (Deiter/HOU & Drake/LV). Carroo, the 2016 third-round WR, would not play after his third season, though he would have begun that season with a 4-game suspension.
• Since drafting starting QB Tua Tagovailoa 5th overall in 2020: one offensive player (Long) and two defensive players (Jones and Tindall) have been drafted in the third round.
• Average position of first selection in 3rd-round: 82.0 (this can be due to trades)

Which players were a hit and which were a miss for the Miami Dolphins?

Since the volume of draft selections is increasing, I’m going to go a little simpler here with my criteria really focused on whether the player earned, or will likely earn, a second contract even if for a different team. I’ll also consider playing time and how much they contributed. There may be caveats, like an incomplete evaluation for instance, which I’ll notate where appropriate.

Xavien Howard (Hit)

• Year (Round Selected): 2016 (2nd)
• Earned a second contract: Yes
• Accolades (if applicable): 4x Pro Bowler, 3x NFL Top 100, 2020 First-Team All-Pro
• Notes: Howard requires no additional commentary. Slam dunk selection.
  • For those wondering, Howard was the 8th DB taken in his own draft, behind Jalen Ramsey, Eli Apple, Vernon Hargreaves, Karl Joseph, Keanu Neal, William Jackson, and Artie Burns.

Kenyan Drake (Hit)

• Year (Round Selected): 2016 (3rd)
• Earned a second contract: Yes
• Accolades (if applicable): Miami Miracle (I know, not really an accolade)
• Notes: Drake has gone on to have a nice career across eight seasons and four teams, rushing for 3,866 yards and going for 1,624 yards receiving in his career.

Leontee Carroo (Miss)

• Year (Round Selected): 2016 (3rd)
• Earned a second contract: No
• Accolades (if applicable): N/A
• Notes: Leonte Carroo would tally just 192 yards on 12 receptions (22 targets) across his three-season career.

Raekwon McMillan (Hit)

• Year (Round Selected): 2017 (2nd)
• Earned a second contract: Yes
• Accolades (if applicable): N/A
• Notes: McMillan has gone on to start 33 games and play in 61 over the course of his four-year career, signing back with New England for another season in 2023. He has 239 tackles, three forced fumbles and two fumble recoveries for his career.

Cordrea Tankersley (Miss)

• Year (Round Selected): 2017 (3rd)
• Earned a second contract: No
• Accolades (if applicable): N/A
• Notes: Tankersley played in just 19 games, with 12 starts, across his three-year career. He logged zero interceptions and just 38 combined tackles.

Mike Gesicki (Hit)

• Year (Round Selected): 2018 (2nd)
• Earned a second contract: Yes
• Accolades (if applicable): Franchise tag in 2022 (while not an award, this is an indicator of performance)
• Notes: Gesicki, largely a receiving threat tight end, has 2,617 yards receiving and 18 touchdowns across 81 games. He received the franchise tag in 2022 and a 1-year contract with New England in 2023.

Jerome Baker (Hit)

• Year (Round Selected): 2018 (3rd)
• Earned a second contract: Yes
• Accolades (if applicable): AFC Defensive Player of the Month (Dec. 2021)
• Notes: Baker is a tackling machine with 509 combined tackles through his first four seasons. Baker has also forced six fumbles, delivered 21 sacks, and 42 quarterback hits. This pick is an obvious hit.

Michael Deiter (Miss)

• Year (Round Selected): 2019 (3rd)
• Earned a second contract: Yes
• Accolades (if applicable): N/A
• Notes: While Deiter has proven thus far to be a replacement-level player, he did earn a second contract with the Houston Texans. However, he has not had much success to this point and thus I’m marking him as a miss. I can understand, though, if you have another classification for him.

Robert Hunt (Hit)

• Year (Round Selected): 2020 (2nd)
• Earned a second contract: Yes, but has not received one.
• Accolades (if applicable): N/A
• Notes: Hunt has proven through three seasons to be a stud on the offensive line, with PFF scores of 66 (2020/RT), 67.4 (2021/RG), and 73.7 (2022/RG primarily). Hunt has proven to be minimally a plus starter at both RG and RT and has seen improved PFF scores (not the only indicator) every year since he was drafted. He also almost scored a touchdown.

Raekwon Davis (Hit)

• Year (Round Selected): 2020 (2nd)
• Earned a second contract: Yes, but has not received one.
• Accolades (if applicable): 2020 NFL All-Rookie Team
• Notes: Davis has proven to be an adequate starter at worst and a plus starter at best across his first three seasons in the NFL. While PFF has his highest-graded season as his rookie season, Davis has been a solid player on the defensive line every season of his career – starting 41 out of 46 games played.

Brandon Jones (Hit)

• Year (Round Selected): 2020 (3rd)
• Earned a second contract: Yes, but has not received one.
• Accolades (if applicable): N/A
• Notes: Jones, starting alongside Jevon Holland, has been a fun one-two punch. He’s had 190 tackles, 13 QB hits, and 8 sacks across 38 games (24 starts). However, he did miss most of the 2022 season with a torn ACL. He’ll certainly receive a second contract with Miami or elsewhere.

Jevon Holland (Hit)

• Year (Round Selected): 2021 (2nd)
• Earned a second contract: Yes, but too early to receive one.
• Accolades (if applicable): 2021 NFL All-Rookie Team
• Notes: Holland is absolutely a superstar in the making. Holland already has 165 tackles, 8 QB Hits, 4 interceptions, and 4 sacks in 33 games (30 starts). Holland is likely to take another step forward in the Vic Fangio defense and I’m here for it.

Liam Eichenberg (Miss)

• Year (Round Selected): 2021 (2nd)
• Earned a second contract: No
• Accolades (if applicable): N/A
• Notes: To this point, Eichenberg has not found success as a starter and looks to be a borderline replacement-level player. However, Grier seems dedicated to giving him a chance to battle for a starting spot on the offensive line. Will he win won? Only time will tell.
  • I do wonder if being shuffled around the offensive line so much in his rookie season possibly affected his development. It’s hard to get good at something when that something changes frequently.

Hunter Long (Incomplete Evaluation)

• Year (Round Selected): 2021 (3rd)
• Earned a second contract: No
• Accolades (if applicable): N/A
• Notes: Incomplete evaluation. Traded to the LA Rams in March 2023.

Channing Tindall (Incomplete Evaluation)

• Year (Round Selected): 2022
• Earned a second contract: N/A
• Accolades (if applicable): N/A
• Notes: Incomplete evaluation.

For those keeping track at home:

• Hits: 9
  • Howard, Drake, McMillan, Gesicki, Baker, Hunt, Davis, Jones, and Holland
• Misses: 4
  • Eichenberg, Deiter, Tankersley and Carroo
• Incomplete Evaluation: 2
  • Tindall and Long
• Excluding Incomplete Evaluations: 69% hit rate across day two selections.

What does it all mean for the Miami Dolphins?

Chris Grier, based on the insights above, has achieved a roughly 69% hit rate across day two draft selections since he took over as General Manager of the Miami Dolphins. At least in my eyes. Of his 15 day-two selections, 8 are still with the team and 9 appear to be hits. This ratio of hit:miss, 9:4, should give Miami Dolphins fans hope going into yet another draft in which the team doesn’t draft until day two.

Of the non-incomplete evaluations through Rounds 1, 2, and 3 (22 selections) since 2016, 15 players are or are likely hits (63%). When it comes to throwing darts, my money is on Grier.

Next up is Day 3 – a very deep dive into rounds 4, 5, 6, and 7. I better caffeinate for that one.

Follow @PhinsDigest for more.